“Black Friday itself is becoming diluted because it’s expanded so much,” said John Mercer, who oversees global and data-driven research at Coresight. But retailers hope the shorter window between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year could create some urgency to spend.

The National Retail Federation projects holiday spending will climb 2.5 to 3.5 percent - to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. That’s slower than the 3.8 percent growth recorded last year but in line with pre-pandemic levels.

Though consumer spending has remained resilient in the face of higher wages and a strong job market, Americans are increasingly price-sensitive. That’s partly because they remember what groceries, clothing and eating out cost them before the pandemic, Mercer said. Combined with higher interest rates and record-high credit card debt, they simply have more incentive to be choosy, shop earlier, compare prices and trade-down when the price is right.

Still, there’s a growing gulf between upper and lower income consumers. Chad Lusk, a managing director of the consumer and retail group at the consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal, said households making less than $100,000 a year are more likely to pull back on spending and hold out for sales on such essentials as food, cleaning supplies and seasonal apparel.

And though higher earners have more flexibility with their budgets, they’re still holding out for the right price. That’s especially true of nonessentials, such as a Ninja Creami ice cream maker, an Oura Ring or a Dyson Airwrap at the top of many holiday wish lists. According to a Gallup survey conducted in October, 38 percent of Americans expect to spend $1,000 or more on gifts, while 31 percent said they will spend $500 or less.

This shift is already playing out among some of the nation’s largest retailers. Target, which for decades has thrived on higher-earning consumers making impulse purchases on home, apparel and sporting goods, has been losing ground to Walmart. Last week, the Minneapolis-based chain slashed its full-year forecast by about 8 percent, noting that consumers are still feeling stretched.

Meanwhile, Walmart is projecting strong turnout over the holiday season as it draws in more customers from six-figure households. The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer is seeing rising demand for its general merchandise and grocery offerings, Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said earlier this month during a call with analysts, partly because it has improved quality while holding the line on prices.

Consumers also are gravitating to discounters like T.J. Maxx and chains like Dick’s Sporting Goods, a sign they don’t want to sacrifice quality and value in the name of price. Analysts note that Target lost cache because certain discretionary categories fell short for many consumers.

Department stores face similar challenges, according to a recent Moody’s report. They’re facing stiffer competition for apparel from low-priced e-commerce brands like Shein, which this month has seen an uptick in sales, according to spending data from Consumer Edge, which tracks credit card transactions on more than 100 million U.S. cardholders.

Plus there’s competition from small businesses: A Bankrate survey found that 61 percent of shoppers said these stores offer more unique gifts and better customer service than big box chains and department stores.

Retailers that offer the best discounts and “nondiscretionary essentials” are well-positioned this year, Moody’s said. It’s already reflected in online sales, with data from Adobe Analytics showing consumers are more eager to buy items in practical categories like grocery and cold-weather clothing. They are also picking up new sheets and replacing old furniture.

Gift cards are particularly popular among households making less than $100,000, Lusk said. It’s “a practical choice,” he said, that lets the giftee decide whether to use it for basic needs or modest splurges.

Meanwhile, more Americans are doing most or all of their holiday shopping online, with Adobe Analytics forecasting a record $240.8 billion in holiday spending. Sales so far are outpacing expectations; consumers spent $77.3 billion online from Nov. 1 to Nov. 24 on Bluetooth speakers, pickleball paddles, gaming consoles, skincare sets and other offerings. That’s 9.6 percent higher than the same period last year and trending above the full season forecast of 8.4 percent.

Data shows that consumers are “willing to splurge on more expensive items in categories from electronics to appliances, partly in response to persistent discounts,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, wrote in the latest sales report.

Other hot sellers online include smartwatches, “Call of Duty: Black Ops 6,” Bluey toys, LEGO Harry Potter and Tonie Audio Play Figurines.

The upcoming Cyber Monday will bookend the holiday deals frenzy. Bankrate expects spending will outpace that of Black Friday.