One example is Jaime Johnson-Duplessis, a nonprofit director in Atlanta, who plans to spend between $250 and $500 on each of her children’s gifts this year, down from $1,000 to $1,500 in previous years. She’s on the lookout for discounts on the items she wants.

“It’s the economy. It just feels like everything is so expensive, and it just doesn't make sense for the pockets this year,” the 34-year-old said.

Near Portland, Oregon, sales executive Anthony Madrigal drove three hours each way to purchase a pre-owned rowing machine as his Christmas gift this year from his family - the culmination of five months of research. The machine cost $900, compared with a price tag of more than $2,500 for a new one. He’s forgoing other Christmas gifts.

“We are asking ourselves, ‘Do we really need this? Do we need this right now? Is there a better time of the year to buy it?’” Madrigal said.

Holiday sales are expected to rise at a slower pace this year, upping the ante for many retailers already battling softer growth. The National Retail Federation, an industry group, expects holiday spending to rise between 2.5% and 3.5% this year, compared with 3.9% last year.

A shorter shopping period, thanks to an unusually late Thanksgiving, is a key concern. The biggest issue is that consumers’ incomes are largely the same, but they now need to use more of it on food and essentials, according to Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at Circana. Other costs are also pressuring budgets, with Tractor Supply Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Hal Lawton recently saying consumers are shifting more spending into services and rent.

Saving Less

Consumers have mostly exhausted their pandemic savings, and they’re putting aside a smaller share of their incomes each month. Many are relying on credit cards and other loans to support spending. US household debt climbed to a fresh high last quarter, with younger consumers and lower earners showing signs of financial strain, including higher delinquency rates. The labor market, too, is starting to shift into a lower gear.

It’s not all doom and gloom, and there’s some optimism that conditions are improving: Interest rates are falling. Election anxieties have subsided, at least for some. Inflation is rising at a slower pace than in recent years. But this doesn’t change the reality for consumers.

“To foot the bill for this year’s holiday spending most families will need to rely on their paychecks,” Wells Fargo & Co. economists wrote in their holiday sales outlook last month. “The good news is that while the labor market may be cooling, so far that cooling has been only incremental and relatively orderly.”

With expenses rising, Margot Gregory, a Gilford, New Hampshire-based photographer, is prioritizing cost-effective gifts for her two young children. She’s also considering activities and experiences, such as membership to a nearby animal sanctuary or hockey lessons. The physical gifts she buys are likely to be things she’d be buying anyway, like Merino wool layers and hiking gear. She’s going to see if Black Friday deals will be worthwhile, but doesn’t have high expectations.

“I’ll look, but honestly, it’s usually cheaper for me to get used,” Gregory, 36, said.

Earlier Sales

Companies are tapping into consumer wariness and ramping up their discounts. Walmart Inc., the world’s largest retailer, extended its Black Friday sales events this year, offering two week-long promotional events online, versus two three-day events last year. It also began selling Thanksgiving meal deals a few weeks earlier and is offering more than double the amount of online promotions this year.

Target Corp. is introducing daily deals throughout November and December on top of a new early Black Friday deal, while Best Buy Co. is starting its main Black Friday sales event a week earlier.

Consumers are watching closely to see where they can find the best deals. In Chicago, Esther Farley, 25, is waiting until she finds the right price before buying gifts for her family. With plenty of deals to choose from, she doesn’t feel the need to rush purchases.

“I used to jump on it because it would be that one Black Friday sale,” said Farley, who started living on her own for the first time over the summer.

She’s been spreading her purchases throughout the year and prioritizing gifts that are functional rather than sentimental. Her family of four also decided to cut back on gifts to save money and be more mindful about consumption. Each family member is expecting roughly five gifts, compared with 13 or 14 before. “Everything is way more expensive this year,” she said.

Morgan Coleman, 31, a culinary assistant in eastern Nebraska, said the high cost of goods means she’s being more selective as she picks gifts for her art-loving 11-year-old daughter. She has been monitoring prices on Amazon, using affiliate links and shopping in secondhand marketplaces. She’s also cutting out holiday meals and started shopping earlier to save money.

“Normally, I start around the Fourth of July, and I started around Easter this year trying to pick up things here and there,” Coleman said. “That way it’s not all needing to come out of a singular paycheck.”

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About 36% of US consumers plan to shop during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, according to a survey by YouGov, a London-based market research and data analytics firm. About 27% plan to spend less than last year, while only 9% plan to spend more.

Madrigal, 47, said he and his wife are being more intentional and avoiding impulsive purchases. In addition to cutting their budget, they’re signing up for brand newsletters for discounts, looking for promotional codes online and opting for longer delivery windows. His family decided to skip a Thanksgiving trip to California this year and instead will stay a couple days longer when they travel for Christmas.

“The reality is, when I go to Safeway around the corner, those prices don’t go down when the Fed drops rates,” Madrigal said.